itppl

pronounced "it people"

the it index · updated sat · oct 31 · mmxxvi

things change fast.
these are the people worth keeping an eye on.

The Trillion-Dollar Existential Risk Bet

the ai brief · oct 25 · mmxxvi

written

The most valuable IPO ever attempted opened its prospectus by warning that its own product could pose existential risks to humanity. Anthropic made its S-1 public on Monday, confirming a Nasdaq listing under the ticker "ANT," with a debut expected around Thanksgiving and a valuation bankers have put at $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion. The filing shows growth that is hard to find a precedent for: $16.3 billion in revenue in the first half of 2026, up from $1.2 billion in the same period a year earlier. It also shows a company still deep in the red, with risk factors that run from a feud with the Pentagon to CEO Dario Amodei's personal reputation to the possibility that advanced AI ends badly for everyone. Anthropic could raise as much as $100 billion.

That combination — record growth, unproven profitability, and apocalyptic hedging in the same document — is the week's defining tension, and it put the Amodei siblings on the move. Dario and Daniela Amodei both rose on the index. The filing reaffirmed a pledge the seven cofounders — Dario Amodei, Daniela Amodei, Tom Brown, Jack Clark, Jared Kaplan, Sam McCandlish and Chris Olah — first made in a January essay by Dario: to give away 80 percent of their personal equity. At the latest private price their combined stakes are worth roughly $99 billion, making the pledge worth close to $80 billion, or about $11 billion a founder on average. The catch, which Fortune flagged, is that the S-1 calls the pledge voluntary and revocable rather than binding, and a Founder LLC keeps the seven holding 50.1 percent of the voting power even if they give the shares away. "The thing to worry about is a level of wealth concentration that will break society," Dario wrote in that January essay — an unusual line to find behind a nine-figure payday. Daniela Amodei, Anthropic's president, separately drew headlines for taking aim at OpenAI over a Pentagon deal and questioning its rival's motives — a reminder that the offering lands amid open friction with Washington and with the competitor Anthropic most defines itself against.

Atop the index, though, sits someone who said nothing. Liang Wenfeng held his number-one spot on the strength of money, not words: his startup DeepSeek is wrapping up a round of about $15 billion, or roughly 100 billion yuan, which Bloomberg called one of the largest in China's history. The target was lifted at least twice — from 50 billion to 80 billion to about 100 billion yuan — with battery giant CATL and Tencent among the biggest backers and a pre-money valuation near $74 billion. The timing was pointed: the raise came together roughly two days after Washington ordered federal civilian agencies to pull DeepSeek's software over security concerns. Liang told investors in September that annualized revenue had reached a $1 billion run rate, more than double the $400 million to $500 million of July, and the company is said to be accelerating a Shanghai listing for early 2027 — potentially beating OpenAI to public markets.

The money story had a counterpoint in the timeline story. Demis Hassabis, holding steady, again pulled in his AGI forecast, now putting human-level machine intelligence two to three years out, down from the three-to-five he was giving earlier this year — while warning regulators not to rush rules before the technology lands. Jensen Huang, also steady, spent the week reinforcing scarcity as a business model: Nvidia is effectively sold out, with the chief executive of Palo Alto Networks relaying that the company can't commit chips for 2028, even as reports surfaced that Nvidia wants roughly $2,000 per GPU in annual software fees and backers lined up a $2 billion AI hub in Kazakhstan.

Among the risers, Clément Delangue of Hugging Face broke out by picking a fight, calling a new Netflix documentary about an AI agent attack "super disappointing" and saying it went "full doomer mode," while telling a Miami summit that every company will soon become an AI builder. The notable faller was Jeff Dean — not for anything he did, but because the index caught noise around his name, from soccer scores to an unrelated obituary, with only an unverified report that a 17-year-old researcher had left Moonshot's Kimi for a Dean-linked venture standing out as possible signal.

The throughline: in a single week, the field's two most consequential labs — one American and closed, one Chinese and open — each locked in a war chest, while the people building the models kept warning, in prospectuses and on stage, that the thing they're racing to build might be dangerous. The capital has decided. The economics, and the safety case, have not.

read-aloud

Anthropic (an-THROP-ik) just filed to go public, and it could be the biggest IPO the market has ever seen — but here's the strange part: the company spends its own prospectus warning that the technology it sells could pose existential risks to humanity. That filing went public on Monday. It confirms a listing on the Nasdaq under the ticker A-N-T, a debut expected around Thanksgiving, and a valuation that bankers are putting somewhere between one-and-a-half and two trillion dollars.

And the growth is genuinely hard to wrap your head around. Anthropic brought in sixteen-point-three billion dollars in revenue in just the first half of this year. A year earlier, that same six months was one-point-two billion. So that's more than a tenfold jump. The company could raise as much as a hundred billion dollars in the offering. But it's still losing money, and its list of risk factors is wild — it runs from a feud with the Pentagon, to the personal reputation of its CEO, Dario Amodei (DAR-ee-oh uh-MOH-day), all the way to the possibility that advanced AI ends badly for all of us.

That tension — explosive growth, no proven profit, and doomsday language all in the same document — is really the story of the week, and it pushed both Amodei siblings up the index. Dario and his sister, Daniela Amodei (dan-ee-EL-uh uh-MOH-day), who's the company's president, are both rising. The filing restates a promise the seven cofounders made earlier this year: to give away eighty percent of their personal stock. At today's private valuation, their combined stakes are worth around ninety-nine billion dollars — so that pledge is worth close to eighty billion, roughly eleven billion per founder on average. The catch? The filing calls that pledge voluntary and revocable — not legally binding. And through a founder holding company, those seven still keep just over fifty percent of the voting power, even if they hand the shares away. Dario himself wrote, and I'm quoting, "The thing to worry about is a level of wealth concentration that will break society." Which is a remarkable thing to say right before one of the largest paydays in history. Daniela, for her part, also made news taking a shot at OpenAI over a Pentagon deal, questioning her rival's motives.

Now, the person actually sitting at number one on the index this week didn't say a word. That's Liang Wenfeng (lee-AHNG wun-FUNG), and he's there purely on money. His company, DeepSeek (DEEP-seek), is closing a round of about fifteen billion dollars — roughly a hundred billion yuan (yoo-AHN) — which Bloomberg called one of the biggest in China's history. They raised the target at least twice to get there. Backers include the battery giant C-A-T-L and the tech company Tencent (TEN-cent). And the timing was pointed: this came together about two days after Washington ordered federal civilian agencies to pull DeepSeek's software over security concerns. Liang told investors back in September that the company had hit a one-billion-dollar annual revenue run rate — more than double what it was in July — and DeepSeek is reportedly speeding up a Shanghai (shang-HYE) listing for early 2027, which could put it on public markets before OpenAI.

A quick word on the timeline debate. Demis Hassabis (DEM-iss huh-SAH-biss) of Google DeepMind (DEEP-mynd) pulled in his forecast again — he now thinks human-level AI is two to three years away, down from the three-to-five he was saying earlier this year — and in the same breath, he told regulators not to rush the rules before the technology actually arrives.

Meanwhile Jensen Huang (JEN-sun HWAHNG) spent the week leaning into scarcity as a strategy. Nvidia (en-VID-ee-uh) is basically sold out — the head of Palo Alto Networks (PAL-oh AL-toh) said Nvidia told him it can't even commit chips for 2028 — and there are reports Nvidia wants around two thousand dollars per GPU in annual software fees, plus a new two-billion-dollar AI hub being lined up in Kazakhstan (kah-zak-STAN).

Among the climbers, Clément Delangue (kleh-MON duh-LAHNG), who runs Hugging Face (HUG-ing face), broke out by picking a fight — he called a new Netflix documentary about an AI agent attack "super disappointing" and said it went, quote, "full doomer mode." And the big faller was Jeff Dean — though honestly not for anything he did. The index just caught noise around his name, from soccer scores to an unrelated obituary, with only an unverified report about a teenage researcher leaving Moonshot's Kimi (KEE-mee) for a Dean-linked startup standing out as anything real.

So here's the thread tying it all together. In one week, the two most important labs in the world — one American and closed, one Chinese and open — each locked in an enormous pile of cash. And the very people building these systems kept warning, in their filings and up on stage, that the thing they're racing to build might be dangerous. The capital has clearly made up its mind. The economics, and the safety case, still haven't.

sources (65)
  1. 1·Dario Amodei68.8

    dario amodei builds claude while fretting publicly about whether safety matters more than the race to scale it

  2. 2·Daniela Amodei67.6

    daniela amodei builds guardrails and bridges between ai's promise and its perils, teaching the nonprofit world to think clearly about both

  3. 3↑14Aidan Gomez63.2

    aidan gomez builds canadian ai infrastructure while arguing europe must choose sovereignty over dependence

  4. 4↑5Nick Frosst◆62.7

    nick frosst builds canadian ai that argues for openness while the world argues about who gets to build it

  5. 5↓2Yang Zhilin59.7

    yang zhilin builds moonshot ai's kimi models to prove china's researchers can compete at the frontier without playing by silicon valley's rules

  6. 6↓2Aravind Srinivas59.6

    aravind srinivas builds search engines that think out loud, then wonders why the rest of tech moved to desks

  7. 7↑5Fidji Simo59.5

    fidji trades the scaling wars for understanding what actually breaks human bodies and minds

  8. 8↓1Arthur Mensch◆59.1

    arthur mensch builds mistral to prove europe can compete in ai without copying silicon valley's playbook

  9. 9↓3Max Tegmark58.9

    max tegmark warns that we're treating ai safety like an afterthought while building systems that could reshape civilization

  10. 10·John Schulman57.4

    the reinforcement learning researcher keeps moving between ai's most ambitious projects, chasing the next frontier

  11. 11·Ali Ghodsi57.1it-curious
  12. 12↓7Liang Wenfeng◆56.1
  13. 13↑2Yoshua Bengio55.5
  14. 14↓1Jensen Huang55.1
  15. 15↓1Andrej Karpathy55.1
  16. 16↑3Geoffrey Hinton54.7
  17. 17↑1Sam Altman54.4
  18. 18↓2Mustafa Suleyman◆54.3
  19. 19↑2Pieter Abbeel53.9
  20. 20↑4Emad Mostaque53.6
honorable mention
21↑2Ray Kurzweil53.5

formerly it

  1. 1↑3Christine Lagarde74.3main character

    lagarde calibrates europe's monetary policy while navigating the delicate space between inflation concerns and growth pressures

  2. 2↓1Nikhil Kamath69.7first time it

    nikhil kamath prods the ai boom with a skeptic's eye while building the next thing through zerodha and true beacon

  3. 3↓1Nikesh Arora68.9

    nikesh arora bets that enterprise context—not raw ai smarts—becomes cybersecurity's only sustainable advantage

  4. 4↓1Brian Chesky63.9

    brian chesky bets airbnb's future on belonging over transactions, pledging half a billion toward housing crises while warning silicon valley that adaptability beats artificial intelligence

  5. 5↑1Mark Cuban61.9

    mark cuban crusades against opaque pricing in healthcare and social security while trying to convince tech founders that goodwill matters

  6. 6↑3Andy Jassy59.1

    andy jassy steers amazon's sprawling empire while insisting that generative ai will remake every customer experience, for better or worse

  7. 7↓2Jack Dorsey58.9

    jack dorsey builds financial and social infrastructure for people skeptical of traditional gatekeepers, betting on crypto and decentralization

  8. 8↑8Satya Nadella57.5

    satya turns microsoft into an ai infrastructure company while convincing wall street that discipline matters more than panic spending

  9. 9↑2Stephen Schwarzman57.5

    stephen schwarzman converts blackstone billions into cultural infrastructure while the world watches his yachts with mixed feelings

  10. 10↑4Lina Khan56.5

    the antitrust lawyer who spent years challenging amazon moves to reshape how new york thinks about economic power

  11. 11↑4Tim Cook56.3it-curious
  12. 12↑1Chamath Palihapitiya56.3
  13. 13↓5Sundar Pichai56.1
  14. 14↑4Bill Gates56.0
  15. 15↓5Eric Schmidt55.3
  16. 16↑10Jerome Powell55.3
  17. 17↓5Larry Ellison55.2
  18. 18↑4Alex Karp55.0
  19. 19↑1Warren Buffett54.8
  20. 20↓13David Solomon54.5
honorable mention
21↑2Reed Hastings54.2

formerly it

  1. 1·Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva88.9main character

    lula navigates brazil's knife-edge politics with the weight of a comeback nobody quite expected to stick

  2. 2newKövesi79.9first time it

    köveski leaves the european prosecutor's office having made investigating corruption her life's work across two continents

  3. 3·Benjamin Netanyahu70.6

    netanyahu navigates a perfect storm of war, survival, and the blur between crisis and political opportunity

  4. 4↓2Kanishka Narayan68.9

    kanishka narayan brings ai governance from the commons into westminster's back rooms where it actually gets written into law

  5. 5↑1Barack Obama62.2

    obama rallies democrats in the midterm stretch, reminding the party what it looks like when someone actually shows up

  6. 6↓1S Jaishankar61.8first time it

    jaishankar speaks plainly about global disorder while threading yoga, millets, and vaccines through india's diplomatic relationships

  7. 7·David Petraeus61.5first time it

    the strategist who spent decades in war zones now warns democracies they're sleeping through their own technological revolution

  8. 8↑5Ursula von der Leyen59.2

    von der leyen plays geopolitical chess with greenland while holding the eu together through trade wars and arctic ambitions

  9. 9↑2Josh Shapiro59.2

    pennsylvania's governor navigates the delicate politics of growth, budget fights, and being a rising democratic name while threats loom

  10. 10↓6Vivek Ramaswamy59.0

    vivek ramaswamy tests how far a republican can push the envelope before the party's own flinches

  11. 11↓3Hakeem Jeffries58.7it-curious
  12. 12↓2Greg Abbott58.4
  13. 13↓4JD Vance56.8
  14. 14↑1Xi Jinping56.7
  15. 15↓1Ron DeSantis56.2
  16. 16·Trump56.2
  17. 17↓5Andy Burnham56.1
  18. 18·Bernie Sanders56.1
  19. 19·Donald Trump55.8
  20. 20↑2Joe Biden55.2

formerly it

▶ listen · top 9 on youtube
  1. 1·Jorja Smith76.6main character

    jorja smith carries the torch of soulful british r&b with a restraint and emotional intelligence that feels genuinely rare

  2. 2·Michael Kiwanuka69.4first time it

    michael kiwanuka crafts lush, introspective soul that finds grace in vulnerability and the messy work of starting over

  3. 3↑1Neil Young65.7first time it

    neil young keeps his distorted guitar and unflinching conscience aimed at power, whether through crackling solos or courtroom defiance

  4. 4↓1KR$NA65.3

    kr$na writes with the lyrical precision that helped transform indian hip-hop from novelty to necessity

  5. 5newParty Dozen63.1first time it

    party dozen crashes saxophone and drums into noise rock turbulence with the force of a two-person wrecking crew

  6. 6·Jeff Buckley61.0first time it

    a singular voice that transforms vulnerability into transcendence, still revealing new depths through reimagined recordings and spatial resurrection

  7. 7·Moor Mother60.4first time it

    camae ayewa channels radical poetry and quantum futurism through jazz collectives that sound like liberation itself

  8. 8↑21DIIV59.7

    diiv keeps dream-pop's widescreen shimmer alive while their new album zirp! stretches into stranger, more textured territory

  9. 9↓1Teenage Fanclub58.9

    teenage fanclub trade in the kind of shimmering, harmony-drunk guitar pop that makes you feel understood without trying too hard

  10. 10↓5English Teacher58.3

    english teacher captures the restless energy of contemporary british indie rock with songs that feel both urgent and intimate

  11. 11↓2Panchiko57.2it-curious
  12. 12↓1Julia Jacklin56.4
  13. 13↑4Kendrick Lamar56.2
  14. 14↑1Courtney Barnett56.0
  15. 15↑3Evanescence55.7
  16. 16↓2Caroline Polachek55.6
  17. 17↑19Getdown Services55.5
  18. 18↓6Jasmine.4.T55.5
  19. 19↓9Billie Eilish55.0
  20. 20↑5Massive Attack54.8

formerly it